This article about poker and luck was a runner up in the Febuary 2010 NoPayPOKER Free Poker Article contest. Member WRIG88 got $100 FreeD. See the poker article writing details page. All accepted articles get $50 FreeD plus bonus chips and the best may win $1000 FreeD or get a runner up prize of $100 FreeD.
In this article, I would like to try and give some insight into the age old battle of is poker a game of skill or luck. I have personally been a money and free online poker player for some 7 years. I have made some nice cash at times but I have also busted several bankrolls.
In my opinion a skilled player is one who can recognize betting patterns, understand flop odds, and percentages, and have a solid concept of strategy and theory. I have noticed however, not matter how well skilled one may be, you must account for variance, and sometimes aggressive, even poor play from others.
I believe in conclusion it is best to assume that poker is a combination of both skill and luck where the skill level of the player involved has a definite effect on the “luck” component of the equation in the medium and long term.
The assumption would be based on this conclusion that you have to be both pre flop aggressive, as well as post flop smart. Many times a player might find themselves in a position where they made the proper call, yet they find themselves behind due in part to an opponents luck hitting a one or two outer.
It is very difficult to try and overcome such a situation. This also can be attributed more toward online poker vs. traditional brick and mortar casinos because of the amount of hands dealt online. The action of online poker is much faster, and decisions must come much quicker.
Many individuals feel that they take more bad beats online as opposed to live play. This mathematically can be attributed to the number of hands both seen, and played. As well, there is a tile factor involved when one feels that they are being pushed too hard, or perhaps have suffered a bad beat.
The decision making can become irrational, and typical hands that would be thrown away are now played, or even pushed pre flop out of anger in trying to win back lost funds.
Others, who are skilled can pick up on such trends and play them to their advantage, which in turn leads to an even more increased loss, and in the eyes of the losing player, more bad beats which he feels was based on luck.
The successful poker player knows how to manage both aspects of the game. In effect you become able to manage probability (luck) by application of skill and so apply the old phrase beloved of annoying sales managers/gurus everywhere, “make your own luck”. Basically meaning that your skill flattens out the “bad luck” to the extent that you are up consistently in the medium and longer term.
And how to do this? Learn your skill on free poker sites before moving into micro and low stakes money games and beyond.
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- Making Free Online Poker Games and Freerolls Fun Again
- Chapter 1: WELCOME TO NoPayPOKER.com – IT’S FREE ONLINE POKER!
- Free Texas Hold em Poker Tips – Why You Must Vary Hand Play on Different Size Tables
- Free Texas Hold em Poker Guide to Understanding Position and Pot Odds
May 21st, 2010 at 10:04 am
Great site. A lot of useful information here. I’m sending it to some friends!
May 21st, 2010 at 9:33 pm
In many ways I do not believe LUCK in and of itself is a major part of online poker. Instead, I would like to point out that their is something called the “Luck Factor” which I will cover more in a moment. Instead of Luck, I consider it a balancing of the odds. A-A over 2-2, heads up has an 80% chance of winning. That said, why are people surprised when the 2-2 wins? There was a 20% or 1 in 5 probability that the pocket Aces would win. If the odds were not that great, the odds would be 90% to 10% or some other odds. It always comes back to the odds, which is why I call it the the Luck Factor.
Freeroll or limited buy-in poker also has a different strategy to playing, in that many players decide to attempt to double-up fast and if they do not they just play in another tournament in 15 minutes. This strategy, when the weaker hand hits, appears that it was “Luck.” The worst odds that the worst hand (7 – 2 offsuit against nine opponents) ever has pre-flop is 4.04% or a one in 20 chance of winning. Why is anyone surprised when 5 people with weak hands are all in a hand, that one of them will win. With a weak hand averaging a one in ten chance, five players have will have a 50% chance that one will win, even against pocket aces.
The pre-flop hand only counts when playing Guts, not Hold’em, and even the best pre-flop hand A – A is only a 31% favorite when faced with nine competing hands (a drop from 80% heads up).
Luck is not all it is cracked up to be, and the early stages of freeroll poker cannot be played as if it really is the same as when real money is on the line.
May 22nd, 2010 at 12:13 am
You are very right. Analyzing the oponents is very useful when trying to obtain the maximum from them.
May 23rd, 2010 at 4:13 am
Even in life some are lucky some are not. The winners say luck is earned by hard work the losers say no matter what they do they lose. Poker has a lot of luck that is not recognised because it is said everything evens out but does it. first there is the deal. What does it reveal. Someactuall think that ace-4 off is a great hand and I see that by how many donks not only call with that hand they raise; it’s only slight better than ace-6. so john has pocket kings and raised 5 times bb but ace-4 and ace-6 call him beause after all the have a great hand and they feel lucky so they call him. there should be no flop on this hand but there is becausem the ace hands play lucky because they couldn’t posssibly call by skill. Flop is 38jack two clubs. Ace 4 ace six check and king bets the pot. May as well call he’s prob bluffing and I feel lucky. Turn comes who gets lucky queen come so you would think the kings did but wait it’s check check all in for another 900 chip sace 4 has flush draw so he goes all in ace 6 finaly folds. River an ace and you can guess the rest. Penny poker is almost as bad as play chip. Is it luck or skill when a person loses 80 percent of draws and 80 percent of races when if no one catches he wins. It’s amazing to me why people get on this site and go all in first hand because they would rather get lucky and have a big stack or be out of tourney with no attempt made to practice their skills and improve their game.
August 26th, 2010 at 5:03 am
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