Is poker about skill or luck? That’s the endless debate. It has 2 answers. If you don’t know what you’re doing it’s luck. If you do then it is skill and, an important part of that skill-set requires the ability to integrate some simple statistics and probability rules into your game in order to, in effect, “make your own luck”.

Many of us might think that it would be great to glide through this, or any, free online poker training tutorial without having to deal with the eleven letter word ‘Mathematics’….possibly not because we don’t possess an ease with numbers, but maybe because we have all-too-often found ourselves in a classroom position, a business setting, or a daily-life situation where the emphasis on charts, graphs, formulas, parameters, conversions, calculations, and other manifestations of Math appeared to be either confusing or unnecessary.

Well….here’s a promise. No Algebra, no trigonometry, no calculus.…just grade school arithmetic; nothing abstract.

And, while the ‘Farm Animals’ would find no cause for basic arithmetic to enter their world of mindless free online poker play, we are compelled to introduce a methodology for easy calculations so that we can proceed beyond pre-flop play; else, like the grazing herds of four-legged critters, we would find ourselves stuck in a pasture with ‘flops’ that can be air dried and tossed, but can’t be used to facilitate our goal of ‘Building a Bankroll’.

To date, through Articles 01, 02, and 03, we’ve come to recognize that Patience, Playable Pockets, Table Position, and Low Pocket Pairs have elevated our game play to the level where we now hold approximately 70% of all the skills and assets we’ll ever need at a poker table….more specifically, at a NoPayPoker table. Our bankrolls have begun to expand, and our time spent at the felt is considerably more entertaining.

Yet, if simple arithmetic doesn’t become part of our every session poker play, we’ll not only never develop a complete comprehension of the game (and reap the concomitant benefits), but we’ll also find ourselves on the list of ‘average’ or ‘marginal’ players. Now, I can’t speak for you. However, for me, that would be totally unacceptable.

Why the need for simple arithmetic?
What is it that forces us to bring 5th or 6th Grade Mathematics to our depository of skills and assets? Do you know the answer? I believe you do….I believe you know full well that you’ll not be able to play effectively post-flop if you can’t properly assess both Pot Odds and Implied Odds.

And, I believe that many of you could put forth a concise, definitive, and easily understood description of both Pot Odds and Implied Odds. Importantly, though, I’ll not let this opportunity to describe both slip away. The two subsequent paragraphs will leave no one behind….we’ll all have a unilateral understanding of Pot Odds, and we’ll all have a unilateral understanding of Implied Odds.

Pot Odds relate to the number of chips that occupy the center of the table.

These are chips that have been tossed into the pot as a result of players calling a bet, calling a raise, or calling re-raises. The total of all of those chips represents the size of the current pot.

If, for example, there were a total of 400 chips in the pot, and you were considering a call of a 100 chip bet, your 100 chips would be getting Pot Odds of 4 to 1 (the 400 chips that are already in the pot, versus the 100 chips that you would need to put into the pot).

Alternately, if there were 600 chips in the pot, and you needed to put 300 chips into the pot to call the last bet made by a competitor, you would be getting Pot Odds of 2 to 1 (the 600 chips that are already in the pot, versus the 300 chips that you would need to put into the pot). So, Pot Odds always gets defined as follows: The current size of the pot as it relates to the amount of chips that you would need to put into the pot.

Implied Odds relate to the number of chips that are stacked in front of the other participants who are playing in the current hand, plus the number of chips that are in the current pot. If, for example, PlayerA had a stack of 2,000 chips, PlayerB had a stack of 3,000 chips, the pot held 1,000 chips, only the three of you remained in the hand, and you needed to call a 400 chip bet, you would be getting Implied Odds of as much as 15 to 1 (6,000 chips to your 400 chips; where the 6,000 chips are comprised of PlayerA’s 2,000 chip stack, PlayerB’s 3,000 chip stack, and the Pot’s 1,000 current chips).

So, Implied Odds always gets defined as follows: The cumulative total of your competitors stacks (who are playing the hand), plus the size of the current pot, where the combined total of the two relates to the amount of chips that you would need to put into the pot.

Certainly, we all recognize that Implied Odds are a bit more difficult to understand (as compared to Pot Odds). And, if any non-clarity exists at the moment, please back up for a few seconds, and re-read the last paragraph. Or, even better, create a visual aid. Sit down at the kitchen table and simulate the example discussed above.

However, don’t be overly concerned regarding full comprehension of Implied Odds at this point in the Article….we’re about to bring Simple Arithmetic, Pot Odds, and Implied Odds together. Once this is done, no one will be left in a state of disorientation….we’ll all be one step closer to adding significant amounts to our respective bankrolls.

Stage left….enter Simple Arithmetic; a powerful tool, advantageously used by good No Limit cash and free Texas Hold Em players alike. And, little, if ever, used by the myriad number of bad players that frequent almost every table in tournament play.

And, there isn’t a single Professional Poker Player alive who doesn’t use Simple Arithmetic during their time spent at the felt. If it were absent from their respective game play, they wouldn’t be professional players for very long….they’d be broke.

Rounding – Making Your Life Simpler

So, as good players we need to possess the ability to perform quick computations….mostly division. And, it’s not a difficult task. Plus, we’ll do a little ’rounding’….this will prove to make our task even easier.

Each time we’ve been dealt two pocket cards, it leaves fifty cards unseen. That number, fifty (50), will always be used by us when we perform our simple arithmetic; never mind that post-flop there are 47 unseen cards, and never mind that post-turn there are 46 unseen cards.

We’re gonna’ stick with 50….it’ll make all the arithmetic we need to do so much simpler. And, that’s what I meant by ’rounding’….using 50, rather than 47 or 46.

Let’s look at a hand where we’ve been dealt King/Queen unsuited, and the flop shows Ten, Jack, Four rainbow (an unsuited flop). We’re all aware of the fact that we have 8 ‘outs’ to an open end straight draw….the four 9′s that we haven’t seen, and the four Aces that we haven’t seen.

Thus, using simple arithmetic, we have an 8 in 50 chance of catching an ‘out’ on the turn; and, 8 in 50 means the same as 16 in 100, which means we have a 16% chance of hitting our desired straight on the turn. Furthermore, 16% translates (100 divided by 16) to a 1 in 6 chance of catching the straight.

Well, in the above example, if we’re not getting a minimum of 5 to 1 Pot Odds, it makes absolutely no sense to be chasing the 9′s and Aces. On the other hand, if the Pot Odds are greater than 5 to 1, then it does make sense to chase….to draw.

And, to avoid any form of confusion, don’t allow what you may, or may not, know about Implied Odds to enter the picture for the moment….we’ll get to that shortly.

Here, we’re only concerned with developing a complete understanding of Pot Odds. We have a 1 in 6 chance of making a straight, and when the Pot Odds are 5 to 1 or greater, it would appear that we are justified in making the call.

What do you think? Are we justified in making the call? If you answered “No”, you’re destined to move forward with the task of ‘Building a Bankroll’. Why?

Fairly simple! You’ve figured out that the 5 to 1 Pot Odds will only make you dead even over the long-term. And, the 5 to 1 doesn’t take into account the possibility of some other player catching runner-runner to beat your straight.

Therefore, you should always be looking for an advantage associated with every bet you make. If 5 to 1 is dead even, then 7 to 1 is a 40% advantage, and 9 to 1 is an 80% advantage. So, whenever Pot Odds yield an advantage, remain in the hand, call the bet, and look to reap the rewards (long-term, not necessarily in any one hand).

As a point of reference, I should tell you that I most often look for an advantage in the area of at least 50%. Yet, your game should be structured around whatever advantage level brings you both comfort and entertainment.

Remember, it’s not my goal to have anyone emulate my game, nor is it my goal to create poker robots. I have only one goal….I’d like each of you to use the skills and assets tied to quality poker play for the sole purpose of ‘Building a Bankroll’.

However, it’s not Pot Odds that are going to guide us into pounding all the Farm Animals into submission. Not a chance! The beatings that we’ll ultimately use to blast both the bad and good players into oblivion will be sourced in our timely use of Implied Odds….believed by many to be 100 times more powerful than Pot Odds.

And, the two are vastly different. Recall that Pot Odds relate to the chips that are lying in the middle of the table, while Implied Odds relate to the chips that are stacked in front of our competitors.

Most often, there’s a far greater number of chips that have not, as yet, entered play. And, it’s those chips that we’re really after….not the piddling sum that frequently exists in the average post-flop pot. Thus, it would be more than appropriate for us to take a moment to finely tune our understanding of Implied Odds.

In the example used above, the Pot Odds example, where we held an open end straight draw, the Pot Odds may have put us in a position where the correct play may have been to fold. But, the Farm Animal we might be playing against could be a ‘raise with any pocket ace’ dimwit; and, he/she might be in possession of a stack that is 10, 20, 30, 40, or more times larger than the current pot.

Well, in such a situation, the Pot Odds of 5 to 1 or less pale in comparison to the Implied Odds. They, the Implied Odds, could easily be more than ten times the Pot Odds. Candidly, I’ve been witness to Implied Odds that were greater than 75 to 1 on countless occasions.

And, regarding our open end draw, any 9 or Ace on the turn or river will allow us to eliminate this Farm Animal in a bombshell fashion….he’ll be on his dumb-struck way to the land of ‘pony rides and never ending circles’.

Additionally, as he leaves, he’ll likely issue a verbal assault in the lobby chat box; he’ll cuss a bit, he’ll call you names, and he’ll transpose the assignment of ‘donkey’ status….he’ll think that you’re the donkey, and that he’s the quality player.

But, what can you expect? He eats grass, drinks stagnant water, and defecates in close proximity to where he sleeps. There’s no way that he’ll ever accept or recognize the fact that you used Simple Arithmetic and Implied Odds to send him to the stench that surrounds his slumber site.

Having written all of the above, it becomes mandatory for me to offer up a few words of caution. And, the caution applies to your future use of Implied Odds.

Thus far, these Articles have been designed around a ‘conservative’ approach to your play in freeroll tournaments at NoPayPoker. This being true, now would not be the time to abandon this bankroll building style of play, now would not be the time to find a useable Implied Odds situation on every post-flop board. Which, I might add, could be done by the Farm Animals on an every-hand basis.

Your use of Implied Odds must keep two constants as a measuring stick to initiate any deviation from the conservative tone that has dominated your playing style.

First, be sure that your competitors are Bozo, Dumbo, and Pinhead….or any combination of the three.

And, second, be sure that the Pot Odds you’re getting are somewhat alligned to the word ‘respectable’. Where, generally, I’d label ‘respectable’ Pot Odds as within 25% of what they should be for you to be getting dead-even long-term plays.

Realistically, if you’re not going to master the use of Pot Odds and Implied Odds, your bankroll’s growth becomes a moot subject matter; it’ll be left to stagnate much like the Farm Animal’s water source.

No one becomes a good poker player without the ability to play post-flop and post-turn. And, there’s not a single good poker player who doesn’t possess a complete command of Pot Odds, Implied Odds, and the Simple Arithmetic that permits both to become a part of his/her set of skills and assets.

Simply stated, if you’re not using Pot Odds and Implied Odds correctly, you can’t ever play post-flop and post-turn winning poker over any extended period of time.

Best of Luck at the Tables

Michael

(c) copyright 2008; no reproduction, all rights reserved by D. M. Vadnais

Next in your free poker lessons strategy lesson course is part 1 of Goals, Bets, Blunders, and Calamities
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